August 8, 2017
Investors Jump Back Into the Euro as Going Short Proves ‘Lethal’
Hedge funds. Asset managers. Central banks. These are just some of the players in the $5.1 trillion-a-day currency market who are buying the euro after shunning it over the past three years.
The shared currency has snapped its losing streak to become the best performer among Group-of-10 peers in 2017. After plunging to a 14-year low in January, the currency has staged a stunning comeback, rising to $1.1910 on Aug. 2, a level not seen since January 2015.

“To be short euros here is absolutely lethal,” said Ulf Lindahl, chief executive officer of A.G. Bisset Associates, who manages about $1 billion from Norwalk, Connecticut. He expects the currency to rise to $1.30 by the end of the year, if not sooner. Even after its 3.6 percent rally in July, investors and analysts are predicting further gains. So who’s buying euros, and why?
Hedge Funds
Hedge funds initially missed out on the euro rally by holding net-bearish bets until May before jumping in, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Since then, speculators have piled headlong into bullish bets, building up the biggest net-long position in six years.

Fast-money traders who use momentum and trend-following strategies were well positioned for the rally, said James Kwok, London-based head of currency management at Amundi SA, which manages about 1.3 trillion euros ($1.5 trillion).
The “euro has been suffering for quite a few years,” Kwok said. “The political risk has diminished a lot and the economic momentum is getting better, and so now is the time for the euro to get back from the undervaluation level.”
U.S. Investors
U.S. investors will “increasingly look overseas for returns,” spurring flows into euro-denominated investments, said Lee Ferridge, head of macro strategy for North America at State Street Global Markets in Boston. They’ll probably do so without hedging against a weaker dollar, which would boost profits earned abroad, he said.
“The biggest potential driver of equity inflows into Europe would be U.S. investors,” which would tend to support the euro, said Alessio de Longis, a New York-based money manager in OppenheimerFunds Inc.’s global multi-asset group. That’s because dollar-based investors would have to buy euros in order to settle stock trades in the common currency, he said.

Euro three-month risk reversals, a barometer of medium-term directional bias, remain staunchly positive, with euro calls at premium levels last seen in 2009.
European Investors
Rising confidence in the European economy recovery gives investors there a good reason to buy assets closer to home, bolstering the euro, State Street’s Ferridge said.
The euro has shaken off its status as a second fiddle as European growth and inflation recovered, while political risks subsided after the election of French President Emmanuel Macron, spurring bets that the European Central Bank will pare stimulus.
Local investments allow traders to sidestep currency risk from overseas bets, said Amundi’s Kwok. He sees the euro rising to a range of $1.20 to $1.25 for the rest of the year and is keeping a close eye on whether Macron can implement economic reforms.
At the same time, European corporations that earn revenue in U.S. dollars will look to hedge against any gains in the euro, said Lindahl at A.G. Bisset.
Central Banks
Reserve managers could be another key buyer of euros in the months ahead, according to Kwok and State Street’s Ferridge. Central banks have boosted the euro’s share of their holdings in recent quarters after reducing holdings in 2014 and 2015 when concerns about Greek debt and political turmoil diminished its appeal as a reserve currency.
While the outlook for Europe has stabilized, U.S. political drama has escalated. Against this backdrop, reserve managers may opt to rebuild their euro holdings, which would cause yet more strength for the currency.
“The whole European project looks to be on stronger footing politically,” Ferridge said. In the U.S., “we have an administration that’s pretty inexperienced politically, and I think the changes that we’ve seen in the administration, the uncertainty, it’s not going to sit will with reserve managers. The euro would be a beneficiary from that.”
September 18, 2017
Acid Attack on Four U.S. Students Wasn’t Terror Act, France Says
by MeDaryl • Cars • Tags: world
Paris (AP) — Four American college students were attacked with acid Sunday at a train station in France, but French authorities so far do not think extremist views motivated the 41 -year-old woman who was arrested as the alleged assailant, the local prosecutor's office and the students' school said.
Boston College, a private Jesuit university in Massachusetts, said in a statement Sunday that the four female students were treated at a hospital for burns after they were sprayed in the face with acid in the city of Marseille. The statement said the four all were juniors studying abroad, three of them at the college's Paris program.
"It appears that the students are fine, considering the circumstances, though they may require additional treatment for burns," Nick Gozik, who directs Boston College's Office of International Programs. "We have been in contact with the students and their parents and remain in touch with French officials and the U.S. Embassy regarding the incident."
Police in France described the suspect as "disturbed" and said the attack was not thought at this point to be terror-related, according the university's statement.
The Paris prosecutor's office said earlier Sunday that its counter-terrorism division had decided for the time being not to assume jurisdiction for investigating the attack. The prosecutor's office in the capital, which has responsibility for all terror-related cases in France, did not explain the reasoning behind the decision.
A spokeswoman for the Marseille prosecutor's office told The Associated Press in a telephone call that the suspect did not make any extremist threats or declarations during the late morning attack at the city's Saint Charles train station. She said there were no obvious indications that the woman's actions were terror-related.
The spokeswoman spoke on condition of anonymity, per the custom of the French judicial system. She said all four of the victims were in their 20s and treated at a hospital, two of them for shock. The suspect was taken into police custody.
Boston College identified the students as Courtney Siverling, Charlotte Kaufman, Michelle Krug and Kelsey Kosten.
The Marseille fire department was alerted just after 11 a.m. and dispatched four vehicles and 14 firefighters to the train station, a department spokeswoman said.
Two of the Americans were "slightly injured" with acid but did not require emergency medical treatment from medics at the scene, the spokeswoman said. She requested anonymity in keeping with fire department protocol.
A person with knowledge of the investigation said the suspect had a history of mental health problems but no apparent past links to extremism. The person was not authorized to be publicly named speaking about the investigation. Regional newspaper La Provence said the assailant remained at the site of the attack without trying to flee.
France has seen scattered attacks by unstable individuals as well as extremist violence in recent years, including in Marseille, a port city in southern France that is closer to Barcelona than Paris.
A driver deliberately rammed into two bus stops in Marseille last month, killing a woman, but officials said it wasn't terror-related.
In April, French police said they thwarted an imminent "terror attack" and arrested two suspected radicals in Marseille just days before the first round of France's presidential election. Paris prosecutor Francois Molins told reporters the two suspects "were getting ready to carry out an imminent, violent action." In January 2016, a 15-year-old Turkish Kurd was arrested after attacking a Jewish teacher on a Marseille street. He told police he acted in the name of the Islamic State group.
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Angela Charlton in Paris and Crystal Hill in Boston contributed to the report.
Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-17/urgent-official-4-us-tourists-attacked-with-acid-in-marseille