politics

March 1, 2018

Emma Bonino: Italy’s pro-Europe, pro-immigrant conscience ⁰

by MeDaryl • Cars • Tags: Europe, Italy, politics, World news

The former foreign minister, activist and politician has radical ideas for todays Italy

Forty years ago, Emma Bonino fought to secure abortion rights in Italy in the shadow of the Vatican. Her campaign involved hunger strikes and a three-week stint in jail.

These days, the former foreign minister, activist and candidate for parliament, is waging an equally difficult battle in support of migrants and in defence of Europe, two ideas that seem radical in todays bitter political environment.

There is, Bonino says, an invisible thread that connects the causes of her life.

You can look at the fights I have waged with this point of view: I support a democratic liberal order and believe in the centrality of the individual, his rights but also his responsibilities, she says.

Those ideas, she adds, are under threat.

Bonino is an icon in Italy. Her supporters might call her the conscience of the country.

While she is not realistically hoping to win next Sundays national election, if Bonino and her party More Europe do well, she will win 3% of the highly fractured Italian vote, a result that would give her control of her own parliamentary group. It would also grant her a fair amount of influence in the event that the election ends, as many expect, with the creation of a grand coalition government between the centre right and centre left parties headed by two former prime ministers, Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Renzi.

The 69-year-old has gained momentum over recent weeks, despite the fact that her ideas including granting citizenship to immigrants run contrary to the prevailing winds in Italy, where migrants are increasingly the target of political vitriol, and where Brussels has been blamed for the countrys economic woes.

In an interview in her small rooftop apartment, which has a terrace overlooking St Peters Basilica, Bonino a lung cancer survivor admits she is frailer than she once was, but is driven by passion for her politics and concerns for the country.

If I look back 50 years ago, if you look at womens rights, I cannot even recognise my country, the change has been enormous, she says. That doesnt mean it is all done. On the contrary, rights are a process, and if you dont care for them, you can lose them from morning to night.

She has been thinking about the banality of evil, the term coined by Hannah Arendt, the political theorist who examined the rise of Nazism, after she saw a viral video of an elderly Italian woman harassing a black man on a bus while other passengers looked on.

Arendt explains how one small sign happens after the other that no one cares about, and then you suddenly find yourself in hell, she says.

The signs that are worrying Bonino are escalating incidents of political intolerance on the left and the right, racist attacks that are not adequately challenged, the lack of resilience in institutions, and the mediocrity of leaders.

She was disturbed by two recent incidents of violence against women, and how differently the murders were treated in the press based on the race of the suspected perpetrators: one, a migrant from Nigeria, and another, a white Italian.

There is no excuse for this kind of thing, she says. There are many things you can do to counter this phenomenon: public speeches, videos, talking in schools, exactly like the entrepreneurs of fear use. It is not true that we dont have tools to react, we are simply not using them in an assertive way.

One of her top political priorities is giving legal status to hundreds of thousands of migrants who are in Italy illegally, much as Berlusconi did in 2000.

She is convinced that Europes demographic challenges and low birthrates will, eventually, give European capitals a wake-up call about their need to welcome immigrants.

Sooner or later, we will recognise that we need them, she says. For the moment the political mood is so bad, so unhealthy, that there is no way to talk rationally.

While Bonino is not worried that Italy might leave the EU, she believes that the constant targeting of Brussels as the source of the countrys problems will have a long-term negative impact.

Its very simple. On one side you have Putin and on the other side you have Trump. You have China and south of the Mediterranean is on fire. If this is the new landscape, if we go on as 27 small states, each on his own, where do we go? she says.

If we continue with blaming Europe, we will never make it better. It will stay as it is, like a boat taking water. So in the end, the boat will sink out of inertia, she adds.

Bonino has her share of gripes with the EU, particularly in its handling of the Libya crisis. She condemns, as a stark violation of every sort of international convention, the manner in which Italy has sought to keep migrants from entering the continent.

We know that the ones who are saved [by the Libyan coastguard], that they are lost forever, and that no one knows what their life will be, she says. We know we are sending them back to hell, we know the conditions of the detention centres they keep. I dont call that a success, I cannot call that a success.

In contrast to her fight with the Catholic church 40 years ago, Bonino can, these days, count on at least one ally: Pope Francis.

The two, she says with a grin, are in touch. We have some connections, so we pass messages quite often, through friends.

February 24, 2018

New Jersey Transits Hidden Danger: Bad Brakes, Bare Wires, Rotten Parts ⁰

by MeDaryl • Cars • Tags: Automotive, business, Employment, Hudson River, Manhattan, National Transportation Safety Board, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, politics, Software, U.S. Republicans

Federal inspectors found scores of New Jersey Transit train cars riddled with fire risks, faulty brakes and electrical hazards as they scrutinized the troubled railroad that brings 95,000 workers to Manhattan daily.

One engine was so defective it was declared unsafe, documents obtained under New Jersey’s Open Public Records Act show. In some cases, NJ Transit’s own checks failed to identify faults brought to light a day or two later by Federal Railroad Administration officials. One was a locomotive with seized air valves and misaligned foundation gear that compromised the braking system’s very core. Another had broken equipment that provides traction on slippery tracks.

While federal regulators regularly inspect railroads, safety failures at NJ Transit led them to conduct a deeper audit in 2016. Though the agency appears to have mostly resolved its findings, the inspectors last year tested NJ Transit equipment with unprecedented frequency, uncovering persistent defects that speak to years of budget starvation and routine risks for more than 300,000 daily riders.

Incurious Inspections

“How do you claim it’s OK for service?" said Richard Beall, a retired railroad engineer and Miami-based train-accident consultant. “It needs to be gone over with a fine-tooth comb every day. If the FRA can find a missing brake clip, I can find a missing clip, too.”

The 400 pages of reports validate riders’ social-media gripes about screeching wheels and rickety suspensions. Passengers have little ability to assess their personal safety. Neither the FRA nor NJ Transit makes the findings readily accessible; NJ Transit took more than five months to fulfill Bloomberg’s public-records request.

In 2017, eight recorders were in use beyond their mandated inspection deadlines, according to the FRA.

“If that lead locomotive is missing its event recorder, now you’re missing the most vital stuff on the train — bells, headlights on,” Beall said. “It’s fine to have another recorder on the train, but it’s not duplicative.”

Nancy Snyder, an NJ Transit spokeswoman, said all recorders now are inspected daily.

Hand in Hand

Diane Gutierrez-Scaccetti, the acting New Jersey transportation commissioner and NJ Transit chairwoman, said agency and federal regulators are cooperating closely.

“They’re our partner in this, not our punisher,” she said at a news conference in Trenton on Feb. 15.

NJ Transit says it’s addressed many flaws identified by inspectors. The resting engineer in Hoboken wasn’t violating rules because he was on break, according to Snyder. Still, the episode was raised as a cause for concern by the railroad administration, which recommended a fine because all the train’s brakes weren’t applied.

NJ Transit appears to have mostly tackled worn track parts, misaligned switches and unsecured trains discovered in 2016 and 2015, when inspectors recommended fines totaling at least $262,000. In Hoboken, Dover and Little Falls, inspectors in June 2017 found NJ Transit following rules on switches, personal protective equipment, warning bells and hand brakes, problem areas in the past.

Fire Hazards

Staff “has exceeded my expectations in their drive” to fine-tune a safety program in Hoboken, Inspector Douglas E. Johnson wrote on June 28.

In the first nine months of 2017, inspectors documented 140 hazards just on train floors or passageways. Unlocked high-voltage electrical panels were widespread, and 18 contained ticket collectors’ paper seat checks — some touching bare wires. New Jersey Transit conducted an internal investigation, though it wasn’t able to identify who was responsible. Inspectors recommended a fine.

“Detailed instructions have been given to crews and the issue has been resolved,” Snyder said. No more seat checks have been found stashed in the panels, she said.

In a Morrisville, Pennsylvania, yard on March 13, Locomotive 6044 was “not in proper condition and safe to operate,” with complete air-brake reservoir failure. An inspector that day documented 24 defects on 14 vehicles, including missing exit signs and emergency glow-in-the-dark evacuation routes, wheel disc pads that lacked retaining clips and seized air-brake cocks.

Snyder wrote in an email that “all these components/parts are routinely replaced as they get damaged from wear and tear.”

Neglected Engines

Elsewhere, electrical grounding was non-existent on 23 cars, and 60 had suspension problems. Nine locomotives were in use beyond their mandated inspection dates. Eleven had either reduced or no capacity to spread slip-reducing grit on rails.

Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, who took office Jan. 16, has pledged to turn around a model operation that he said became “a national disgrace.” Under his predecessor, two-term Republican Chris Christie, NJ Transit’s annual state subsidy was cut as much as 90 percent, and $3.44 billion of its capital budget was diverted to cover daily expenses.

NJ Transit's Shaky Subsidy

Christie administration cut transit aid by 90 percent.

Source: New Jersey budgets

“If you use capital funds for day-to-day operations, it’s a snowball-type of effect, and it will be severe,” said Robert Halstead, a Syracuse, New York, accident analyst who investigated the Hoboken crash. “You’ve got to spend money or the tougher it gets to ever get back on top. Some railroads never do.”

Pressing Deadline

NJ Transit, a driver of the state’s employment and high property values, faces tremendous pressure to regain efficiency.

Despite a December 2018 federal deadline to install emergency-braking technology, software bugs led the agency to suspend installations on 400 locomotives. The sole rail link to Manhattan, a century-old Amtrak tunnel beneath the Hudson River, is crumbling and President Donald Trump has balked at a federal cost-share to construct a second crossing.

NJ Transit has the nation’s second-highest number of train breakdowns, and operates a fleet that includes 50-year-old locomotives and more than 300 passenger cars built in the 1970s and 1980s. In 2017, inspectors repeatedly cited missing or broken latches that allowed heavy cabinet doors to swing free. One car’s bathroom door was secured with duct tape.

“It is taking us longer to get parts,” Robert Lavell, the NJ Transit rail operations director who’s retiring in March, told lawmakers last month. In earlier testimony before that committee, which is investigating the railroad’s finances and slipping service, NJ Transit management said it was short-staffed throughout the system.

On Feb. 15, a week after Bloomberg obtained the inspection reports, Murphy told reporters that NJ Transit is meeting with suppliers to get more inventory and hiring technicians to step up repairs and inspections.

“The thousands of rank-and-file workers who show up every day at NJ Transit, some of whom are with us today, are not to blame,” Murphy said at the Trenton rail station. “In many ways they are the ones who have kept this system running and safe in the absence of real leadership and vision.”

January 5, 2018

Brexit is a ‘nationalist spasm’: Lord Adonis resigns as infrastructure tsar

by MeDaryl • Cars • Tags: Andrew Adonis, Article 50, Brexit, business, European Union, Foreign policy, Labour, politics, Rail industry, Rail transport, Theresa May, Transport, UK news

Labour peer urges his party to support second referendum as he steps down as chair of national commission

Brexit has caused a nervous breakdown in Whitehall, the former Labour minister Andrew Adonis has said following his resignation as chair of the government-backed National Infrastructure Commission.

Lord Adonis resigned on Friday in protest at Theresa Mays management of Britains departure from the EU, describing the process as a dangerous populist and nationalist spasm worthy of Donald Trump.

He told BBC Radio 4s Today programme on Saturday morning: Almost the entire government machine is spending its time seeking to wrench us out of the key economic and political institutions of the EU. Everything else is going by the board.

Adonis said there should be a second referendum on the terms of the Brexit deal and that people like him who are in leadership positions should be arguing passionately with the British people as to why staying in the EU is the right thing to do.

He said those who voted to leave were not stupid but argued that Brexit was not defined before the referendum and people should be given a new say on the choice between Mays deal and staying in the EU.

I hope we can bring the common sense of the British people to bear when they realise what the consequences are, he said.

The former transport secretary headed the body that makes recommendations to the government on projects such as the high-speed rail link HS2. Most recently he recommended that 1m new homes be built in the brain belt spanning Oxford, Cambridge and Milton Keynes.

Adonis has become increasingly outspoken on a series of policy issues in recent months, including tuition fees and vice-chancellors pay.

He told BBC Breakfast earlier on Saturday: My differences with the government had become too great, not only on Brexit, which I think is being handled very badly but increasingly Brexit is infecting the whole conduct of Whitehall. Were seeing that including in infrastructure itself.

His strongly worded resignation letter accuses the prime minister of becoming the voice of Ukip and pursuing policies that would leave Britain in splendid isolation.

I am afraid I must now step down because of fundamental differences, on infrastructure and beyond, which simply cant be bridged, he wrote.

Adonis said he was duty bound to oppose the governments flagship EU withdrawal bill, which will reach the House of Lords in the new year. He described the it as the worst legislation of my lifetime.

He said Britain could have abided by the result of the 2016 referendum and left the EU without rupturing our essential European trade and political relations. Instead, the prime minister had become the voice of Ukip and the extreme nationalist rightwing of her party.

Adonis said he would have felt compelled to step down anyway over the transport secretarys decision to bail out Stagecoach and Virgin on the East Coast rail franchise. It is increasingly clear that the bailout is a nakedly political manoeuvre by Chris Grayling, he said. He described the move as extraordinary and indefensible, saying that it would cost taxpayers hundreds of millions of pounds, possibly billions.

Grayling announced that a new partnership would take on responsibility for intercity trains and track operations on the route in 2020. Virgin Trains East Coast, involving Stagecoach and Sir Richard Bransons Virgin, had previously agreed to pay the government 3.3bn to run the service until 2023.

Adonis said he had tried to warn the government of the cost to the taxpayer of the bailout, but that a senior official had tried to stop him. He is said to have text messages from a senior official at the Department for Transport, warning it may be more difficult to cooperate with him if he attacked the decision, and that it could be awkward for him to attend its annual party.

He is also said to have sent a direct text message warning to Philip Hammond, the chancellor, which went unanswered.

Adoniss departure, which was confirmed by commission officials,makes him the second senior Labour figure to resign from a government-backed role, following Alan Milburns decision to step down as chair of the social mobility commission, citing Mays failure to make progress on the issue.

It is unclear why Adonis, who was appointed to the role in April, chose now to resign, when May made clear in her conference speech in 2016 that she planned to take Britain out of the single market and the customs union.

Before the official announcement of his resignation, an early version of Adoniss letter to May was leaked to the media. When asked how this happened, Adonis told Today that dirty tricks had been played but that he would be speaking unmuzzled from now on.

Nick Timothy, Mays former chief of staff, tweeted that the recent behaviour of Labour appointees was making it harder to pick people from different party backgrounds.

Adonis has also been highly critical of his own partys stance on Brexit, urging the shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmers team to advocate remaining in the single market, and suggesting Labour would eventually end up backing a second referendum.

A Labour spokesperson said: Theresa Mays weak and divided government cant even command the confidence of its own advisers. With each resignation, the stench of decay around the government grows stronger and stronger. The Tories
are in office, but not in power.

Vince Cable, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, expressed sadness about Adoniss departure. Lord Adonis is one of the most thoughtful politicians around. This is why he has so many friends and political admirers beyond the Labour party, he said.

It is, then, a great shame that he is no longer leading Britains infrastructure programme. Yet he felt there was no other option but to resign because of the way Brexit has been so badly mishandled.

Notably, he is deeply concerned by how the Conservative leadership has pandered to its right wing over the single market and customs union, leaving which will badly and needlessly damage our trade.

Senior government sources played down the significance of his departure, claiming his position had been under threat over his recent habit of engaging in vehement Twitter spats.

They also cited his criticism of government policy. Hes been moving closer to the exit door with each new onslaught he makes against Brexit, they said.

The former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith said: Lord Adoniss departure is long overdue.

Its a bit rich for him to pontificate on what he calls populism, but what most would refer to as democracy, when he himself has never been elected by a public vote. He has instead relied on preferment from others.

Adonis was an adviser to Tony Blair and a key driver of the decision to impose tuition fees on university students, but he has been strongly critical of recent changes to the scheme.

The large-scale infrastructure projects he championed are likely to go ahead without his chairmanship, because his approach is shared by the chancellor, who is keen to boost investment to offset the impact of Brexit on the economy.

Full text of Adoniss letter

Dear prime minister,

The hardest thing in politics is to bring about lasting change for the better, and I believe in cooperation across parties to achieve it.

In this spirit I was glad to accept reappointment last year as chair of the independent National Infrastructure Commission, when you also reaffirmed your support for HS2, which will help overcome Englands north-south divide when it opens in just eight years time. I would like to thank you for your courtesy in our personal dealings.

The commission has done good work in the past 27 months, thanks to dedicated public servants and commissioners. Sir John Armitt, my deputy chair, and Phil Graham, chief executive, have been brilliant throughout. I am particularly proud of our plans for equipping the UK with world-class 4G and 5G mobile systems; for Crossrail 2 in London and HS3 to link the northern cities; and for transformational housing growth in the Oxford-Milton Keynes-Cambridge corridor.

I hope these plans are implemented without delay. However, my work at the commission has become increasingly clouded by disagreement with the government, and after much consideration I am writing to resign because of fundamental differences which simply cannot be bridged.

The European Union withdrawal bill is the worst legislation of my lifetime. It arrives soon in the House of Lords and I feel duty bound to oppose it relentlessly from the Labour benches.

Brexit is a populist and nationalist spasm worthy of Donald Trump. After the narrow referendum vote, a form of associate membership of the EU might have been attempted without rupturing Britains key trading and political alliances. Instead, by allying with Ukip and the Tory hard right to wrench Britain out of the key economic and political institutions of modern Europe, you are pursuing a course fraught with danger.

Even within Ireland, there are set to be barriers between people and trade. If Brexit happens, taking us back into Europe will become the mission of our childrens generation, who will marvel at your acts of destruction.

A responsible government would be leading the British people to stay in Europe while also tackling, with massive vigour, the social and economic problems within Britain which contributed to the Brexit vote. Unfortunately, your policy is the reverse.

The government is hurtling towards the EUs emergency exit with no credible plan for the future of British trade and European cooperation, all the while ignoring beyond soundbites and inadequate programmes the crises of housing, education, the NHS and social and regional inequality which are undermining the fabric of our nation and feeding a populist surge.

What Britain needs in 2018 is a radically reforming government in the tradition of [Clement] Attlee, working tirelessly to eradicate social problems while strengthening Britains international alliances. This is a cause I have long advocated, and acted upon in government, and I intend to pursue it with all the energy I can muster.

Britain must be deeply engaged, responsible and consistent as a European power. When in times past we have isolated ourselves from the continent in the name of empire or sovereignty, we were soon sucked back in. This will inevitably happen again, given our power, trade, democratic values and sheer geography.

Putin and the rise of authoritarian nationalism in Poland and Hungary are flashing red lights. As Edmund Burke so wisely wrote, people will not look forwards to posterity who do not look backwards to their ancestors.

However, I would have been obliged to resign from the commission at this point anyway because of the transport secretarys indefensible decision to bail out the Stagecoach/Virgin East Coast rail franchise. The bailout will cost taxpayers hundreds of millions of pounds, possibly billions if other loss-making rail companies demand equal treatment. It benefits only the billionaire owners of these companies and their shareholders, while pushing rail fares still higher and threatening national infrastructure investment. It is even more inexcusable given the Brexit squeeze on public spending.

The only rationale I can discern for the bailout is as a cynical political manoeuvre by Chris Grayling, a hard-right Brexiteer, to avoid following my 2009 precedent when National Express defaulted on its obligations to the state for the same East Coast franchise because it too had overbid for the contract. I set up a successful public operator to take over East Coast services and banned National Express from bidding for new contracts. The same should have been done in this case. Yet, astonishingly, Stagecoach has not only been bailed out, it remains on the shortlist for the next three rail franchises.

The East Coast affair will inevitably come under close scrutiny by the National Audit Office and the public accounts committee, and I need to be free to set out serious public interest concerns. I hope the PAC calls Sir Richard Branson and Sir Brian Souter to give evidence. I am ready to share troubling evidence with the PAC and other parliamentary committees investigating the bailout.

As you know, I raised these concerns with the chancellor and the transport secretary as soon as the bailout became apparent from the small print of an odd policy statement on 29 November majoring on reversing Beeching rail closures of the 1960s. I received no response from either minister beyond inappropriate requests to desist.

Brexit is causing a nervous breakdown across Whitehall and conduct unworthy of Her Majestys government. I am told, by those of longer experience, that it resembles Suez and the bitter industrial strife of the 1970s, both of which endangered not only national integrity but the authority of the state itself.

You occupy one of the most powerful offices in the history of the world, the heir of Churchill, Attlee and Gladstone. Whatever our differences, I wish you well in guiding our national destiny at this critical time.

Yours sincerely,
Andrew Adonis

January 2, 2018

2018 Feels Ripe for Big Unexpected Crisis, Eurasia Group Says

by MeDaryl • Cars • Tags: Beijing, business, china, Donald John Trump, Economics, Ian Bremmer, Jinping Xi, markets, North Korea, politics, Russia, Syria, Washington

This year could see a geopolitical crisis on the scale of the financial crash a decade ago, Eurasia Group warned in its annual outlook.

Describing global political challenges as “daunting,” the New York-based political risk consultancy said that “if we had to pick one year for a big unexpected crisis — the geopolitical equivalent of the 2008 financial meltdown — it feels like 2018." The biggest uncertainty surrounds China’s move to fill a vacuum as U.S. influence continues to decline, stoking tensions between the two powers, it said. That’s likely to affect economics as well.

“We see a much greater fragmentation of the global marketplace because governments are becoming more interventionist,” Eurasia President Ian Bremmer said in a Bloomberg Television interview with Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua. “Part of that is because the Chinese have an alternative model for their investments and they’re increasingly going to be seen as the most important driver of other economies around the world who will align themselves more with Beijing than with Washington.”

Here are some of Eurasia’s biggest worries in 2018:

China

President Xi Jinping’s successful consolidation of authority is helping him to fill the gap created by U.S. President Donald Trump’s move away from Washington-led multilateralism. In areas such as trade and investment, technology and values, China is setting international standards with less resistance than ever before.

“For most of the West, China is not an appealing substitute,” Eurasia said. “But for most everybody else, it is a plausible alternative. And with Xi ready and willing to offer that alternative and extend China’s influence, that’s the world’s biggest risk this year."

Miscalculations

There are too many places where a misstep or misjudgment could provoke serious international conflict. Cyberattacks, North Korea, Syria, Russia and terrorism are some of the risks that could trigger a mistake that leads to confrontation.

“We aren’t on the brink of World War III,” Eurasia said. “But absent a global security underwriter, and with a proliferation of subnational and non-state actors capable of destabilizing action, the world is a more dangerous place.”

Technology Cold War

As rapid technological developments reshape the economic and political order, the process will be messy. Fault lines include a struggle for market dominance, fragmentation and a race for new technologies.

“As our cars, homes, factories, and public infrastructure begin to generate mountains of data, and as connectivity morphs into augmented reality, a new generation of humans will be ‘on the grid’ around the clock, with important implications for society and geopolitics,” Eurasia said. “But until we get there, it’s the world’s biggest fight over economic power.”

Iran

Relations between the U.S. and Iran in 2018 will be a source of broad geopolitical and market risk. If the nuclear deal doesn’t survive the year, the Middle East could be pushed into a real crisis.

“Trump has it in for Iran,” Eurasia said. “Rightly or wrongly, he sees the country as the root of much evil in the world.”

Protectionism

Protectionism will make further inroads led by populism, state capitalism and heightened geopolitical tensions. Governments are also intervening in the digital economy and innovation-intensive industries to preserve intellectual property and related technologies.

“The rise of anti-establishment movements in developed markets has forced (in some cases, enabled) policy makers to shift toward a more mercantilist approach to global economic competition and to look as if they’re doing something about lost jobs,” Eurasia said. “Walls are going up.”

December 9, 2017

Gun Buying Loses the Fear Factor Under Trump, Sparking Price War

by MeDaryl • Cars • Tags: AMERICAN OUTDOOR BRANDS CORP, Barack Obama, business, Donald John Trump, earnings, Environment, Industrials, markets, New York, P James Debney, politics, S&P 500 INDEX, War

A bad dream for U.S. firearms producers has become reality: The fear-based motivation for gun purchases has evaporated and is being replaced by bargain hunting.

A price war has broken out across the gun industry with no end in sight. Sales and profits are dropping. American Outdoor Brands Corp., the maker of Smith & Wesson weapons, slashed its annual profit target by 45 percent.

“There was some fear-based buying that would take place from time to time. There is no fear-based buying right now,” James Debney, chief executive officer of American Outdoor, said in a conference call. Heavy discounting is “the primary driver for a consumer who wants to acquire a firearm.”

Blame the new business environment on Donald Trump, a self-avowed champion of gun owners and the right to bear arms. Weapons sales often spiked after mass shootings during President Barack Obama’s administration, as some customers fretted that lawmakers would respond with tougher gun-control measures.

Gunmakers aren’t reducing production enough to meet lower demand, and inventories at independent dealers is high, Debney said. He cited competitors offering rebates of $150 on sport rifles, a level of discounting he called unsustainable.

“We have to defend our position and weather the storm — ultimately until there’s a better balance between those production rates and the consumer demand,” he said after the close of regular trading Thursday. It’s unclear how long the discounting will continue, he said.

Shares Tumble

American Outdoor plunged 12 percent to $13.15 at 12:54 p.m. in New York after falling to $12.46, its lowest intraday since April 2015. The stock dropped 29 percent this year through Thursday, while the S&P 500 Index climbed 18 percent. Rival Sturm Ruger & Co. declined as much as 7.8 percent Friday, the most intraday in four months.

American Outdoor slashed its earnings target for the fiscal year through April to a range of 57 cents to 67 cents a share from $1.04 to $1.24, citing the need for price cuts to maintain market share. The Springfield, Massachusetts-based maker of the M&P Shield 9 mm handgun cut its sales goal to $670 million to $675 million. It previously forecast $700 million to $740 million.

“We believe the industry environment will remain difficult for several more months, if not longer,” Chris Krueger, an analyst with Lake Street Capital Markets, said in a note.

A record number of background checks, a proxy for gun purchases, during Black Friday had sparked investor hopes that gun demand had hit bottom. But that holiday buying was merely a sign that consumers were waiting for steep bargains, Debney said. The National Instant Criminal Background Check system dropped 12 percent in November from a year earlier.

Tracking Demand

The industry eventually will match production with gun demand, and the large discounts will diminish, Debney said. Consumers are still driven to buy weapons on concerns over their personal safety, he said. The big unknown: What is the long-term level of demand under an administration that doesn’t spark concern over possible firearm regulation.

“Where do we settle out in terms of the size of the market?” Debney said. “We just don’t know.”

November 28, 2017

Dramatic video shows escape, shooting of North Korean defector

by MeDaryl • Cars • Tags: defects, dmz, north-korea, politics, south-korea, us-world, video

Warning: Some viewers might find the above video disturbing.

It’s the stuff of action movie climaxes, but IRL.

A new video captured by the United Nations Command depicts a North Korean soldier defecting by crossing the “Joint Security Area” (JSA) of the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). The gunfire that the escape attempt drew is a violation of the truce between North and South Korea, the first such violation since a similar escape attempt in 1984.

In the video, the former soldier flees by military jeep. But when he gets stuck in a ditch right on the border, the soldier — whose last name is Oh, according to Stars and Stripes — sprints from the driver’s seat and attempts to run. His former fellow soldiers rain bullets on him, and he gets shot multiple times. South Korean soldiers eventually crawl through the JSA and drag him to safety.

According to Stars and Stripes, the South Korean Unification Ministry, which monitors relations with the North, says it’s only the third time a soldier has ever tried to escape via the JSA, with previous attempts in 2007 and 1998. In 1984, a Russian tourist attempt resulted in a gun battle between North and South Korean forces.

The JSA is supposed to remain a neutral location free of violence, per the terms of the truce. And in the video, in addition to the shots fired in the JSA, a North Korean soldier pursuing the defector actually crosses in to the South, which is another violation. Luckily, nothing has escalated since.

Oh is now recovering in a hospital in Suwon, a city south of Seoul. Apparently he really likes watching American shows like CSI. Welcome to freedom, buddy.

October 13, 2017

Banks Pine for Loan Growth as Clients Wait on Trumps Promises

by MeDaryl • Cars • Tags: BANK OF AMERICA CORP, business, Debt, Donald John Trump, Economic Growth, Federal Reserve, infrastructure, JPMORGAN CHASE & CO, politics, Regulation, Tax Reform, Taxes

President Donald Trump’s pledges to overhaul taxes, trade, infrastructure and health care may thrill some corporate leaders, but it’s causing many to delay expansions. That’s bad for banks.

Lending growth probably decelerated for a fourth straight quarter in the three months ended Sept. 30 across more than a dozen of the biggest U.S. banks, according to Royal Bank of Canada analysts and Bloomberg calculations. Their total loans may have ticked up just 1.8 percent, the smallest increase in more than two years, as commercial and industrial customers held off on buying equipment and building plants.

Executives are “hesitant to borrow in the face of uncertainty,” said Jason Goldberg, an analyst at Barclays Plc. “Whether it’s potential tax reform, health-care uncertainties, or they’re unclear what infrastructure spending is going to look like, you’ve definitely seen corporates take a pause.”

Washington’s inaction has been frustrating bankers for months, a sentiment that may surface anew when they start posting quarterly results this week. During the last round in July, JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon lashed out, saying, “There would be much stronger growth if there were more intelligent decisions and less gridlock.” In June, Bank of America Corp. Chief Operating Officer Thomas Montag said corporate clients need clarity to make big investment decisions.

Trump and his top economic adviser, Gary Cohn, have said they expect the financial industry to help fund growth. But instead, a dearth of progress on big legislation has stymied that business.

Congressional Republicans spent much of September trying to resurrect a failed health-care bill. Then Trump told lawmakers his $1 trillion infrastructure plan may not rely on public-private partnerships, potentially throwing a wrench into a key priority. The president also released a tax plan that many analysts consider unlikely to win support until designers can prove it won’t balloon the federal deficit.

For banks, the uncertainties are compounding challenges in lending, which also is being constrained by tighter regulation and slower-than-expected interest-rate hikes — factors that have crimped trading revenue too. Low yields have encouraged firms to issue bonds and use the proceeds to repay bank loans, said Alison Williams, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. U.S. Bancorp CEO Andrew Cecere addressed the challenges at an investor conference last month.

“With the low yield curve, there was a lot of debt issuance, and that debt issuance was used to pay down some bank lending,” he said. In addition, “there was some more uncertainty that entered the market because of some of the slowdown in the perceived timing of tax policy and trade policy and regulation,” slowing companies’ capital expenditures.

‘Mental Signal’

Corporate executives’ outlook for the next six to 12 months deteriorated in July and August, with some respondents citing heightened policy uncertainty, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago said last month. The number of workers on U.S. payrolls declined in September for the first time since 2010, reflecting major disruptions from hurricanes Harvey and Irma.

For now, bank investors are willing to look beyond that. The 24-company KBW Bank Index surged more than 30 percent from the November election to early March on optimism that Trump’s administration will eventually ease bank regulation, reignite inflation and drive up interest rates. The rally resumed in September as attention shifted to taxes.

“People were underweight financials for a long time,” said Chris Whalen, an independent analyst and consultant. “When Trump got elected that was a mental signal for these guys that we should increase our allocation.”

Investors continue to see reasons for optimism. Trump’s plan to cut corporate tax rates would be particularly beneficial for banks, whose burdens are often elevated by a lack of deductions. The six largest U.S. banks could see net income rise $6.4 billion under the administration’s proposal. And lenders still produce big profits. JPMorgan generated $26.5 billion in the 12 months through June, a record for any U.S. bank.

Mortgage, Autos

Yet expectations for the third quarter are measured. JPMorgan, the nation’s largest bank, may say Oct. 12 that adjusted profit rose 2 percent to $5.89 billion, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. At Citigroup Inc., set to report the same day, profit probably slipped 1 percent to $3.57 billion.

Wells Fargo & Co. and Bank of America report the following day and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley release earnings next week.

There are other reasons for concern. While consumers are still borrowing more, there’s mounting evidence they’re becoming less reliable, potentially ending a period in which losses were low. Credit cards face heightened competition, while an overheated auto market has led some lenders like Wells Fargo to pull back.

And for mortgage lending, a big driver for banks in the run-up to the 2008 financial crisis, new rules have made it more difficult to make money. Survivors have been buying loans from smaller “correspondent” lenders, a strategy that’s started to run out of room.

“You will see some pain this quarter,” Whalen said. “JPMorgan and Wells Fargo have been bidding aggressively.”

Trading Declines

Trading also is expected to be down, in part because the lack of congressional action has left clients with few reasons to buy or sell. Executives from JPMorgan, Citigroup and Bank of America told investors last month to expect declines ranging from 15 percent to 20 percent in the third quarter from the same period a year ago.

That may leave investors and analysts looking past this quarter’s results to the end of the year, when lawmakers may have more progress to show on tax policy and other priorities.

“Banks tend to be more optimistic looking out than they are in the current quarter, so we’ll see,” Barclays’s Goldberg said. “Pipelines are good. At the end of the day though, loan growth is a reflection of the economy and economic growth has been a little bit more subdued than desired.”

October 8, 2017

South Korea Phones the North Twice a Day. No One Answers

by MeDaryl • Cars • Tags: Conservative, Engineering, Japan, Liberal, Military, North Korea, Nuclear Weapons, politics, Seoul, South Korea, United States

Seoul, South Korea (AP) — Every day, South Korea's Unification Ministry sends officials to the border village of Panmunjom to call North Korea at 9 a.m. and 4 p.m. For more than 18 months, the North hasn't picked up.

As North Korea steps up its nuclear weapons tests and threats, the Unification Ministry, dedicated to improving relations with the North and eventual peaceful reunification, faces an almost existential crisis.

Not long ago the ministry was one of Seoul's most powerful departments. It had central roles in engineering two historic summits between the leaders of the two Koreas and launching joint economic projects in the 2000s. That is mostly gone after nearly a decade of hard-line conservative rule in the South, and a rapid expansion of missile and nuclear weapons development in the North.

The nuclear problem has become much larger than just a Korean Peninsula issue. North Korea has launched midrange missiles over Japan and flight-tested intercontinental ballistic missiles, confirming fears that it's close to its goal of building a military arsenal that can target the United States and its Asian allies.

The world has responded by stepping up sanctions and military pressure on Pyongyang. In South Korea, the most important decisions on North Korea now come from the president's office and the defense and foreign ministries. The Unification Ministry has been mostly left to issuing boilerplate denouncements of Pyongyang's weapons tests and propaganda outbursts.

"You need both hands to clap and North Korea isn't responding at all," said Baik Tae-hyun, the ministry's spokesman. "But it won't be like this forever. There were times in the past when it took a long time, a year or two, for relations to thaw after periods of animosity."

The election of a liberal president in May, ending nine years of conservative government, briefly raised hopes. But Pyongyang has so far ignored a Unification Ministry proposal in July to hold inter-Korean military and Red Cross talks. In changed circumstances, it is less clear what the Unification Ministry should, or can do.

DASHED HOPES

The ministry has its origins in the National Unification Board, which opened in 1969 when South Korea was ruled by the staunch anti-communist dictator Park Chung-hee. After mostly serving research functions, it became more prominent under Roh Tae-woo, who won the 1987 presidential vote that took place months after military leaders accepted free elections.

Roh sought to improve relations with Pyongyang following the fall of the Berlin Wall. He elevated the unification board to the level of a vice prime-ministerial department. The Koreas held their first-ever prime ministers' talks in 1990, and both countries joined the United Nations at the same time in 1991.

Two liberal presidents, Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun, met with North Korea's then-leader Kim Jong Il in 2000 and 2007, respectively. But his son, current leader Kim Jong Un, has conducted four of the country's six nuclear tests and seems to see no value in dealing with Seoul.

Successive conservative governments in South Korea, from 2008 until earlier this year, took a tough line on Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions, erasing past reconciliatory efforts.

The five-year presidency of President Lee Myung-bak, who took office in early 2008, was marked by animosity with the North, including North Korean attacks on a warship and a border island that together killed 50 South Koreans in 2010. He briefly considered closing the Unification Ministry and transferring its functions to the Foreign Ministry.

His successor, conservative Park Geun-hye, angered Pyongyang by openly talking about a potential regime collapse in the North. She took an even harder line last year as North Korea conducted two nuclear tests.

Her government pulled South Korean companies out of an industrial park in North Korea's Kaesong in February 2016, the last remaining major symbol of cooperation between the two. One of Park's unification ministers became so frustrated that he reportedly said his job could be given to anyone because it wouldn't make a difference. The ex-minister, Ryoo Kihl-jae, declined to comment for this story.

It's still critical that the Unification Ministry keeps knocking on the North's door, said Jeong Se-hyun, who served as unification minister under liberals Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun

"The ministry has to keep pestering Pyongyang over the military and Red Cross talks," he said. "It has to keep placing calls on the Panmunjom telephone. The situation can quickly change and North Korea could feel the need for dialogue. When they do return, they will likely want to deal with the United States first, but let them try to accomplish anything in talks with Washington without the involvement of Seoul — it won't work."

DRIVER'S SEAT TO BACKSEAT

A liberal returned to power in South Korea in May, after a corruption scandal forced Park from office.

President Moon Jae-in harshly criticized the approach of his conservative predecessors, who he said did nothing to stop Pyongyang's nuclear advances and diminished Seoul's voice in international efforts to deal with the North.

He made longtime ministry official Cho Myoung-gyun his unification minister, valuing his experience in preparations for the two summits, including accompanying Roh to the 2007 meeting with Kim Jong Il. He expressed hope that the resumption of inter-Korean talks would help put Seoul in the "driver's seat."

North Korea's only response has been more missile launches and its sixth nuclear test. Moon is now scrambling to ramp up the South's military capabilities, saying dialogue is currently "impossible" after North Korea's most powerful nuclear test ever on Sept. 3.

Some experts say the stakes have become too high for the reins to remain with Seoul. The belief that improvements in inter-Korean relations alone could lead to meaningful breakthroughs over the nuclear problem are outdated views from a time when the North's threat was weak, said Hong Min, an analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul

"Seoul needs to move with the international community to deal with the challenge posed by North Korea's nuclear missiles, instead of approaching it as a matter of who gets to lead," he said.

Chung Dong-young, a lawmaker who served as unification minister under Roh Moo-hyun, disagrees, saying Seoul should still try to lead the process and push harder to resume talks with Pyongyang.

As Seoul's special envoy, Chung went to Pyongyang in June 2005 to meet with Kim Jong Il and try to persuade him to return to multilateral negotiations on North Korea's then-nascent nuclear program. The North months earlier had declared it would no longer attend the six-party talks by the Koreas, the United States, China, and Russia that had been launched in 2003.

The June meeting helped set up North Korea's return to talks three months later in Beijing, where it agreed to end its nuclear weapons program in return for security and energy benefits.

"That was when South Korea was actually in the driver's seat," Chung said.

The six-party agreement of September 2005 foundered quickly, and the North detonated its first nuclear device in October 2006.

October 3, 2017

Las Vegas Horror Drives All-Too-Predictable Gun Stock Rally

by MeDaryl • Cars • Tags: AMERICAN OUTDOOR BRANDS CORP, business, Elections, Gun Control, guns, Las Vegas, National Rifle Association, OLIN CORP, Orlando, politics, Stocks, White House

The grim predictability of stock-market reactions to U.S. mass shootings—where before a final tally of casualties can be reached, shares of gun makers rise—continued Monday in the wake of a Las Vegas attack that killed at least 58 and wounded 515.

Historically, gun stocks have experienced a bump after a mass shooting for reasons both political and emotional. Gun sales typically rise over concerns that a deadly event could lead to more stringent gun-control legislation. An additional driver of sales, and by extension shares, is the rush by some consumers to purchase guns to defend against future attacks.

Authorities said that Stephen Craig Paddock opened fire from the 32nd floor of the Mandalay Bay Resort, high above a crowd attending the nearby Route 91 Harvest Festival concert. The shooter, originally reported to have been killed by officers, may have shot himself before they entered his hotel room, police said. As local hospitals worked to treat the injured, the south end of the iconic Las Vegas Strip was shut down. The motives of the 64-year-old white gunman remain unknown, police said.

As news of the attack spread, firearm-related stocks began to rise. Olin Corp., the maker of Winchester ammunition, rose almost 7 percent. American Outdoor Brands Corp., formerly Smith & Wesson Holding Corp., was up about 3 percent, and Sturm Ruger & Co. rose almost 4 percent. Following the Pulse nightclub shooting in Orlando, Fla., last summer, which left dozens dead, Sturm Ruger and Smith & Wesson saw stock prices increase. The same phenomenon occurred after the San Bernardino, Calif. shooting in late 2015, which left 14 dead.

In the past, gun rights supporters and organizations such as the National Rifle Association have warned of future regulatory efforts Democratic administrations may try to impose using a mass shooting as justification. This pattern continued throughout the Obama administration, even when the Democratic Party lost control of the House and Senate. Things could turn out differently, however, now that Republicans control the White House and both houses of Congress.

Gun makers have made it clear they see a connection between the partisan politics, high-profile shootings, and their business. “Concerns about presidential, congressional, and state elections and legislature and policy shifts resulting from those elections can affect the demand for our products. In addition, speculation surrounding increased gun control at the federal, state, and local level and heightened fears of terrorism and crime can affect consumer demand,” American Outdoor Brands wrote in its annual report this year, citing the “impact of news events, including terrorism” on gun buying habits.

Political change can have an adverse effect on gun stocks, too. After the 2016 election of Donald Trump, who has espoused less-strict gun control policies than those of his Democratic predecessor, gun stocks sank. American Outdoor Brands has seen a double digit stock decline in the months since the presidential election.

September 30, 2017

Uber apologises after London ban and admits ‘we got things wrong’

by MeDaryl • Cars • Tags: business, London, politics, Road transport, Sadiq Khan, technology, tfl, Transport, Transport policy, Uber, UK news

London mayor Sadiq Khan says he welcomes apology by CEO of ride-hailing app, which has been stripped of its licence

Ubers chief executive has apologised for the taxi apps mistakes in London and promised to change as the company fights a decision by the city not to renew its licence.

The firm is battling to keep operating in the capital after Transport for London decided not to renew its licence to operate. Ubers London licence expires on 30 September, although it will continue to run taxis while it pursues a legal appeal process that could last a year.

TfL said last week Uber was not a fit and proper private car-hire operator and cited four areas of concern, including its approach to reporting criminal offences and carrying out background checks on drivers. But sources close to TfL indicated that a change of conduct from the taxi firm, the culture of which is being reformed by its new chief executive, could leave the door open to a fresh licence application.

Dara Khosrowshahi, who succeeded Uber founder Travis Kalanick as CEO a month ago, wrote in an open letter: While Uber has revolutionised the way people move in cities around the world, its equally true that weve got things wrong along the way. On behalf of everyone at Uber globally, I apologise for the mistakes weve made.

We will appeal [against] the decision on behalf of millions of Londoners, but we do so with the knowledge that we must also change.

Sadiq Khan, the London mayor and chair of TfL, said he welcomed Khosrowshahis apology. Obviously I am pleased that he has acknowledged the issues that Uber faces in London, Khan said. Even though there is a legal process in place, I have asked TfL to make themselves available to meet with him.

However, another Uber executive told the BBC on Monday he company did not understand the concerns of Londons transport regulator.

Fred Jones, an executive at Ubers UK operation, said: Sitting down with TfL representatives as soon as possible would be the most helpful thing to really understand their concerns, to work out what they are. It is just not clear to us what those concerns are.

When asked why Uber does not report criminal offences directly to the police and instead notifies TfL, which lengthens the investigative process, Jones said: We follow the rules.

Referring to one specific incident involving an Uber driver who sexually assaulted a passenger, he said: We hold our hands up, we made a mistake. In that incident we just didnt realise when that passenger wrote in how serious it was … We apologise to everyone involved.

The Uber driver involved stayed on the companys books and went on to commit another, more serious, attack.

Jones defended Ubers usual practice of notifying TfL of criminal offences. As soon as we receive a serious complaint or we are alerted of it, we restrict the access to the app and immediately investigate and that would involve notifying TfL.

He added that Uber had set up a working group. This is absolutely something we will work on with the police. This is absolutely an area where we want to go further.

Khan said Uber had brought unfair pressure on TfL, employing an army of PR experts and lawyers.

The mayor said: I want companies that abide by the rules, I want companies that innovate, harbour new technologies, I want disruptive technology coming to London but youve got to play by the rules.

In a separate dispute, Uber will on Wednesday challenge a tribunal ruling over the employment status of its drivers, which lawyers say is also a public safety issue. Uber is attempting to overturn a landmark ruling that its drivers are workers, with rights to paid holiday and the minimum wage.

Lawyers representing the original claimants, James Farrar and Yaseen Aslam, said Uber was deliberately kicking the can down the road and had so far ignored the ruling from October last year. Paul Jennings, of Bates Wells Braithwate, said: At the heart of this is safety. Imagine if it was bus or train drivers who couldnt take a paid holiday. Given the numbers involved and the nature of this work, there is a real risk.

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